Risk Disclosure

Last updated: January 1, 2025

IMPORTANT: THIS RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT DESCRIBES THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTION MARKETS AND RELATED ACTIVITIES. PLEASE READ THIS DOCUMENT CAREFULLY BEFORE USING OUR SERVICES OR ENGAGING IN ANY PREDICTION MARKET ACTIVITIES.

Purpose of This Disclosure

aiphamarket is an educational and informational platform that provides analysis and insights about prediction markets. While we do not operate a prediction market ourselves, our users may choose to interact with third-party platforms. This disclosure outlines the risks you should understand before engaging in any prediction market activities.

1. General Risk Warning

PREDICTION MARKETS INVOLVE A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER PARTICIPATION IS APPROPRIATE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND RISK TOLERANCE.

  • You can lose all of your money. Never participate with funds you cannot afford to lose.
  • There are no guaranteed returns or profits in prediction markets.
  • Past performance does not guarantee future results.
  • The value of positions can fluctuate rapidly and without warning.

2. Nature of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are speculative instruments where participants bet on the outcomes of future events.

  • Speculative Nature: Prediction market positions are speculative bets, not investments in traditional assets.
  • Binary Outcomes: Most prediction market positions resolve to either 100% or 0%, meaning total loss is possible.
  • Event Risk: Unexpected events, news, or developments can cause sudden and dramatic price changes.
  • Resolution Risk: The outcome of events may be disputed or resolved in unexpected ways.

3. Financial Risks

3.1 Loss of Capital

  • You may lose your entire position if the market resolves against you.
  • Losses can occur rapidly due to market volatility.
  • There is no insurance or protection for losses in prediction markets.
  • Leveraged positions, if available, can amplify losses beyond your initial capital.

3.2 Liquidity Risk

  • You may not be able to exit a position at your desired price.
  • Illiquid markets may have wide spreads between buy and sell prices.
  • Large positions may be difficult to close without significant price impact.
  • Market liquidity can disappear rapidly during volatile periods.

3.3 Counterparty Risk

  • Third-party platforms may become insolvent or cease operations.
  • Smart contracts may contain bugs or vulnerabilities.
  • Platform operators may freeze or restrict access to funds.
  • You may not have legal recourse against offshore or decentralized platforms.

4. Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Risks

Most prediction markets operate using cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, which carry additional risks:

4.1 Volatility Risk

  • Cryptocurrency values can fluctuate significantly, affecting your position value.
  • Even winning positions may result in losses if the underlying currency devalues.
  • Stablecoins may lose their peg to the underlying fiat currency.

4.2 Technical Risks

  • Blockchain networks may experience congestion, delays, or outages.
  • Transaction fees ("gas") can be unpredictable and expensive.
  • Smart contract bugs or exploits may result in loss of funds.
  • Wallet software vulnerabilities may compromise your assets.

4.3 Security Risks

  • Loss of private keys means permanent loss of funds with no recovery option.
  • Phishing attacks and scams are prevalent in the cryptocurrency space.
  • Exchanges and platforms may be hacked.
  • Malware may compromise your devices and steal credentials.

4.4 Irreversibility

  • Blockchain transactions cannot be reversed once confirmed.
  • Sending funds to wrong addresses results in permanent loss.
  • There is no chargeback or dispute resolution mechanism.

5. Regulatory and Legal Risks

5.1 Regulatory Uncertainty

  • Prediction markets operate in a complex and evolving regulatory environment.
  • Laws regarding prediction markets vary by jurisdiction and may change.
  • Activities that are legal today may become illegal in the future.
  • Regulatory enforcement actions may affect platform operations or your access.

5.2 Legal Risks

  • Prediction market participation may be illegal in your jurisdiction.
  • You are solely responsible for understanding and complying with local laws.
  • Using VPNs or other methods to circumvent restrictions may be illegal.
  • You may face legal consequences for participating in prohibited activities.

5.3 Tax Implications

  • Prediction market gains may be taxable in your jurisdiction.
  • Tax treatment may be unclear or unfavorable.
  • You are responsible for reporting and paying applicable taxes.
  • Consult a tax professional for guidance on your specific situation.

6. Market Manipulation and Fraud

  • Prediction markets may be subject to manipulation by well-funded participants.
  • Insider information may be used to gain unfair advantages.
  • Wash trading and other manipulative practices may distort prices.
  • Fraudulent markets or fake platforms may steal your funds.
  • Social media and news manipulation may affect market prices.

7. Information and Analysis Risks

The analysis and information provided by aiphamarket is for educational purposes only and carries its own risks:

  • AI-generated analysis may contain errors, inaccuracies, or biases.
  • Market data may be delayed, incomplete, or incorrect.
  • Historical patterns may not predict future outcomes.
  • Analysis does not account for sudden news or unexpected events.
  • You should not rely solely on any analysis for decision-making.

8. Psychological and Behavioral Risks

8.1 Gambling and Addiction

Prediction market participation shares many characteristics with gambling and can be psychologically addictive.

  • The excitement of potential gains may lead to excessive participation.
  • "Chasing losses" can result in progressively larger bets and greater losses.
  • Addiction can have serious financial, psychological, and social consequences.
  • If you feel you cannot control your participation, seek professional help immediately.

8.2 Cognitive Biases

  • Overconfidence: Believing you can consistently predict outcomes better than others.
  • Confirmation Bias: Seeking information that confirms your existing beliefs.
  • Sunk Cost Fallacy: Holding losing positions hoping to recover losses.
  • Recency Bias: Overweighting recent events in your predictions.
  • FOMO: Fear of missing out leading to impulsive decisions.

8.3 Resources for Help

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem:

9. Operational Risks

  • Platform outages or technical issues may prevent you from trading or exiting positions.
  • Internet connectivity issues may cause missed opportunities or failed transactions.
  • Mobile or desktop applications may malfunction.
  • Time-sensitive markets may resolve before you can act.

10. Third-Party Platform Risks

aiphamarket integrates with third-party platforms such as Polymarket. We do not control these platforms and are not responsible for:

  • Their operational reliability or security.
  • Accuracy of their market resolutions.
  • Their terms of service or rule changes.
  • Any losses incurred through their platforms.
  • Their regulatory compliance or legal status.

11. No Guarantees

NEITHER AIPHAMARKET NOR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, EMPLOYEES, OR AGENTS MAKE ANY GUARANTEES REGARDING:

  • The accuracy of any analysis, prediction, or information provided.
  • The performance or outcomes of any prediction market positions.
  • The safety, security, or legality of third-party platforms.
  • Your ability to profit from prediction market participation.

12. Your Responsibilities

Before participating in any prediction market activities, you should:

  • Only use funds you can afford to lose completely.
  • Understand the specific risks of each market or position.
  • Research and verify the legality in your jurisdiction.
  • Secure your cryptocurrency wallets and credentials.
  • Set personal limits on the amount you are willing to risk.
  • Seek professional financial and legal advice if needed.
  • Monitor your psychological state and stop if you feel compelled to continue despite losses.

13. Acknowledgment

BY USING AIPHAMARKET'S SERVICES, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE AND AGREE THAT:

  • You have read and understood this Risk Disclosure in its entirety.
  • You understand that prediction market participation involves substantial risk of loss.
  • You are solely responsible for your own financial decisions.
  • aiphamarket is an educational platform and does not provide financial advice.
  • You will not hold aiphamarket liable for any losses you may incur.
  • You have the financial means and risk tolerance to participate in prediction markets.
  • You are of legal age and jurisdiction to engage in such activities.

Contact Us

If you have questions about this Risk Disclosure, please contact us:

aiphamarket
Email: hello@aipha.market

Terms of Service | Privacy Policy